- There is some probability that occurred commodity price movement is fundamental (e.g. connected with growing world demand for electric vehicles) and not temporary (like rising coal prices during floods in Australia) (in mathematical terms we could say that posterior mathematical probability of the prices in future period would be higher because commodity prices are auto-correlated as can be seen below)
- In fact, the company is earning more in current market environment and probably has earned more since the last reporting date, which means its net debt would be lower compared to situation of negative market environment
In this respect we believe that it is important to estimate 2 parameters: how much the company is earning in current market environment? What is estimate of its net debt taking into account of market environment and number of days passed since the reporting date (and dividends paid after the reporting date)?